Unions Optimistic for Workplace and Political Election Victories

By Lehr Middlebrooks Vreeland & Thompson, P.C.

November 29, 2018

Unions have more optimism for growth than we have seen in several years, and the facts back them up. For example, union membership increased by a net of 316,000 from 2016 to 2017, for a total of 14,817,000 members. This is the largest membership growth in a single year in more than a decade. Furthermore, unions are now organizing Millennial and Generation Z employees. Among those in the 16 to 24 age group, union membership increased from 4.4% in 2016 to 4.7% in 2017. Among those ages 25 to 34, union membership increased from 9.2% to 9.4%. There are 50 million American workers between ages 16 and 34. The only other age group where union membership increased was between ages 55 and 64 (13.3% to 13.5%), and those numbers represent 21,778,000 workers.
 
Union representation rates declined among those groups where it historically had steadily increased. For example, among white women, membership declined from 9.9% in 2016 to 9.7% in 2017, black male membership declined from 13% to 12.6%, and black female membership declined from 12.1% to 11.7%. Interestingly, membership among white males of all ages increased from 11% to 11.4%.
 
The industries where unions have had the greatest increase include healthcare and social services. In manufacturing, the issues we see with an overall robust economy are concerns about excessive workloads (even at overtime pay), safety, pay, and a question of job security in light of the fear of the impact of tariffs on the employer.  
 
Labor's optimism regarding the political process is evidenced by its successful participation in coalitions to turn the House from Republican to Democratic control. Furthermore, labor may very well have stemmed the tide of right-to-work expansion, with the recent vote in Missouri to overturn the state's newly enacted right-to-work law. Labor's greatest optimism involves the 2020 national elections. In 2016, President Trump narrowly won labor stronghold states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin. If the Democrats nominate a candidate who connects with labor, those states could flip from President Trump in 2020. There are 700,000 union members in Michigan, 700,000 in Pennsylvania, and 600,000 in Ohio. Of all the potential Democratic candidates for president in 2020, Joe Biden would likely forge the greatest connection with those union members who left the Democratic Party in 2016 to support President Trump.
 
The last success that labor had politically was increasing the number of Democrat-held state government trifectas, where the executive and both legislative branches of state government are held by the same party. Prior to this month's elections, there were 26 Republican trifectas and 8 Democrat trifectas; now those numbers are 22 Republican and 14 Democrat.
 
Public opinion polls show that unions are viewed favorably, particularly among the 16- to 34-year-old employees. That group believes unions are "on the right side" of social, environmental and economic issues which concern them. We expect labor to raise more money than ever for the 2020 national elections, and if the trend holds, they will have more members to help contribute to that cause.